MOZOM vergelijkt
MOZOM compares: probably heat wave, science or steering word?
- Source
- MOZOM vergelijkt
- MOZOM headline
- MOZOM compares: probably heat wave, science or steering word?
- Original headline
- NU.nl writes that this heat wave was probably impossible 50 years ago; the word probably carries science and framing at the same time
- Author
- MOZOM-redactie
- Date
- 26 juni 2026 om 20:26
- Subject
- Analysis of climate attribution language around heat waves and the media use of probability as near-fact.
Summary of the original report
NU.nl writes that this heat wave was probably impossible 50 years ago. Such climate attribution uses models, historical observations and probability equations: how likely was the same heat in a past climate and how likely is it now? That's not the same as a casual guess. But in journalism, the word 'probably' takes on a different meaning. In plain language, probably can mean anything: aliens probably exist, you'll probably win the lotto tomorrow, something probably won't happen anyway. Climate news often sounds like a scientific stamp: not absolutely certain, but enough to push the reader towards a conclusion.
Striking in this message
It is striking that 'probably' is not weakened here, but strengthened. The headline doesn't say: we're not sure. The headline says: the science points this way. As a result, uncertainty does not become a brake on the message, but part of the message.
Less visible context
What remains less visible is that attribution studies depend on models and comparison periods. That doesn't make them worthless, but it does make them different from a thermometer record. You can measure a record; you have to reconstruct a world without current warming. That is precisely why the word probably deserves more explanation than one headline can bear.
Possible message behind the news
A possible message is that climate news is not just about temperature, but about the authority of opportunity language. Anyone who says likely must explain which probability, which model and which uncertainty.
Neutral conclusion
The neutral conclusion: probably is not a proof word and not a nonsense word. It's a chance word. In climate science that is part of it; in the media it can feel manipulative when the opportunity is not explained but is sold as a conclusion.