MOZOM-analyse

Climate change or heat hype? Extreme heat is not new

KNMI, DWD, Met Office, Météo-France, AEMET, GeoSphere Austria, ISPRA, IPCC and European news media Climate 15 augustus 2026

Type: Analyse Author: Ron Caroselli Published: 15 augustus 2026 Report a correction

Realistic editorial caricature of television cameras magnifying a thermometer during real summer heat, next to a visible archive of older European heat waves

Source: KNMI, DWD, Met Office, Météo-France, AEMET, GeoSphere Austria, ISPRA, IPCC and European news media
MOZOM headline: Climate change or heat hype? Extreme heat is not new
Original headline: The Netherlands will have to adapt to summers of 40 degrees
Author: Ron Caroselli
Date: 15 augustus 2026
Subject: Historical heat outliers, climate change and the European media frame around 40 degrees and the new normality

Summary of the original report

The Dutch heat wave of June 2026 was early, muggy and heavy. In Ell a temperature of 39.4 degrees was measured and in De Bilt there were three tropical nights. But on the KNMI heat wave number, this period came in sixth place since 1901. The heat waves of 1975, 1976, 2003, 2006 and 2020 scored higher. The KNMI has registered forty national heat waves since 1901. The current heat of 2026 is in fourth place as of August 15, behind 2006, 1947 and 2018. The year is not over yet, but the ranking already shows why both alarmism and denial are short-sighted: old years can still be at the top, while recent warm years are accumulating more and more closely. This double reality also exists elsewhere in Europe. In the United Kingdom in 1976 there were fifteen consecutive days when temperatures exceeded 32 degrees; June 2026 had ten non-consecutive days at the point of comparison. The recent peaks were higher and the nights were warmer and more humid. In Austria, June 2026 delivered a record heat wave, but the entire month ended up being only the fourth warmest June, according to GeoSphere. It was different in France: June 2026 was actually the warmest June in the national measurement series and set national daily records. So not every alarming headline is framing. Some events are truly record-breaking; others get a record color because only one size is highlighted. The official trends are also clear. The DWD reports that the average number of German days of at least 30 degrees has approximately tripled since the 1950s. Météo-France has recorded 54 heat waves since 1947 and two-thirds of them occurred after 2000. AEMET reports that thirteen of the fifteen warmest Spanish Junes have occurred in the twenty-first century. The IPCC concludes that the intensity and frequency of hot extremes have most likely increased in all European sub-regions and that there is robust evidence for human influence. The defensible criticism is therefore not that climate change is a fabrication. The criticism is that the media too often compress the existence of heat, the trend and one isolated weather event into one catchy but scientifically sloppy sentence.

Europe next to the measurement series: record or magnification?

MOZOM does not assess whether heat is dangerous, but whether the heading makes it clear which temperature measure, period and equation is used.

Country and media framework	What the headline suggests	What the official series adds	MOZOM observation
Netherlands - NU.nl: summers of 40 degrees	Forty degrees is presented as a new summer reality to which the Netherlands must adapt.	June 2026 peaked nationally at 39.4 degrees and the heat wave ranked sixth. The first official Dutch 40-degree record dates from 2019; 1947 and 1976 remain historical heavyweights.	The adjustment question is legitimate, but the headline turns a future scenario into a statement and omits the historical ranking.
Germany - '40 degrees are no longer an exception'	The 40 degree threshold is presented as the new normality.	Germany also experienced significant heat in 1952, 1976, 1983, 2003, 2006 and 2015. At the same time, the DWD reports that the average number of days of at least 30 degrees has approximately tripled since the 1950s.	The trend is real, but 40 degrees remains slightly different from the much broader category of hot days. The formulation mixes threshold and trend.
United Kingdom - 1976 is our new normal	A once exceptional summer would now have become an ordinary benchmark.	In 1976, somewhere in the UK, temperatures exceeded 32 degrees for fifteen days in a row. June 2026 had higher peaks and warmer nights, but at the time of comparison ten non-consecutive days above 32 degrees.	A strong rhetorical headline. Duration, peak and night heat yield different winners; 'normal' is therefore unclear without measurement.
Austria - 40 degrees and the new normality	The record heat wave makes the entire month historically exceptional.	GeoSphere called the heat wave record-worthy, with numerous station records, but June 2026 as a full month was the fourth warmest June in measurement history.	The event was exceptional; the monthly ranking was less sensational. Both facts belong side by side.
France - new heat wave with highs of up to 40 degrees	France is experiencing another exceptionally hot phase.	Météo-France confirmed that June 2026 was the warmest June in the national series and national daily averages set records. Of the 54 heat waves since 1947, two-thirds occurred after 2000.	Here the record language is strongly supported by official national figures. Historical context makes the trend clearer rather than weaker.
Spain - extreme deviations become normal	A hot month is quickly linked to a permanent new climate.	Forty degrees is not historically a new phenomenon in parts of Spain. AEMET ranked June 2026 as the second warmest since 1961 and reports that thirteen of the fifteen warmest Junes occurred this century.	The loose threshold is old; the distribution and accumulation of warm months provide the stronger climate claim.
Italy - persistent heat as new normality	The daily heat becomes part of an overarching climate story.	Southern Italy has long had temperatures above 40 degrees. At the same time, ISPRA series show that recent years and seawater temperatures are remarkably often above the long-term average.	The temperature limit alone proves little; the frequency, duration and background temperature are more journalistically relevant.
Europe - measured temperature and perceived temperature	Heads sometimes use values of 35 to 40 degrees without immediately making it clear whether it is air temperature or perceived temperature.	Humidity, sun and wind can increase physical strain, but perceived temperature is not a measured air temperature and cannot be directly compared to an old thermometer record.	The health risk can be real, while the numerical comparison still becomes apples and oranges. The size belongs in the head or directly below it.

What a temperature record does and does not prove

MOZOM compared European heatwaves with national meteorological measurement series. Five quantities were kept apart. A station maximum says what happened in one place and at one time. A national daily or monthly average says something about the geographical size. The duration determines whether there was a short peak or an exhausting period. Minimum temperatures show whether people, animals and buildings could cool down at night. The frequency over many decades is necessary to determine climate development. News that picks just one of these five can show a true fact but still give a skewed overall picture. The Dutch figures illustrate this clearly: 39.4 degrees, three tropical nights and the earliest very severe phase are relevant, but the heat wave as a whole lagged behind five previous heat waves, according to KNMI's own figure. At the same time, six years from 2018 onwards are in the top fifteen of the current heat numbers. History puts the individual peak into perspective, not automatically the trend.

From heat day to climate evidence in one cup

The most commonly used accelerant is the phrase “the new normal.” It sounds measurable, but often has no fixed statistical definition. Does the writer mean that 40 degrees occurs every year, that the chance has increased, that a future model exceeds the threshold more often or just that citizens have to prepare? A second technique is the scale change: the highest value at one station is placed in a European or national cup as if the entire country had that temperature. A third is time shifting: a scenario for 2050 or 2100 is linguistically brought into the present. A fourth is historical selection: 1976 is mentioned as a nostalgic memory, but not always as a serious quantitative comparison. In this way, reporting can inflate the climate component without inventing a temperature. The problem then lies in what is missing besides the true figure.

No evidence for a joint European heat campaign

The fact that various media simultaneously talk about 40 degrees, records and a new normality does not prove a centrally controlled campaign. National weather institutes, Copernicus, news agencies and the same scientific publications form a shared source chain. In addition, news selection and social media reward exceptional figures, threats and simple explanations. Politics can then use such reporting to present climate measures, taxes or adjustment budgets with more urgency. However, the claim that heat news is deliberately produced to sell a specific tax requires documents, orders or financial connections. These were not found in this study. It is demonstrable that the media framework is regularly more certain than the underlying measurement series.

Possible message behind the news

Extreme heat deserves preparation and protection, but not historical memory erasure. Show the series of measurements before a separate thermometer is made into proof of a complete political message.

Neutral conclusion

Extreme heat is not new. The Netherlands had severe heat waves in 1911, 1947, 1975 and 1976; Southern Europe experienced 40 degrees long before the current news cycle. What has changed is not evident from one red thermometer but from the statistics surrounding it: more hot days, warmer nights, earlier and later heat waves and a growing concentration of warm years. That is precisely why exaggeration is unnecessary. The measurement series are strong enough without declaring every outlier an unknown era. Climate change is a demonstrable trend; heat hype arises when a medium turns one peak into the whole story.